The incident of hurricanes is predicted to be well above average in the upcoming 2008 season.
According to Science Daily, scientists at the Colorado State University forecast team have amended their early season hurricane forecast. Their findings were announced at the Bahamas Weather Conference held on April 10th 2008.
Their predictions are based on conditions in the Atlantic Ocean and here are their findings which support their prediction of an active season.
- The Atlantic sea surface temperature continues to remain warm due to a positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).
- A weather condition known as the Azores High is predicted to produce weak trade winds this year.
- Weak La Nina conditions are predicted for the Pacific which calls for warmer than normal weather.
These factors are similar to what occurred in active seasons in the past. Higher than normal warm water and warm air creates the perfect conditions for increased hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin.
The 2005 season was 275% above normal and scientists predict the 2008 season will be 160% above average.
Here are their other predictions:
- 69% chance of one major hurricane making landfall in the U.S.
- 45% chance of a hurricane making it’s landfall on the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula
- 44% change of a hurricane making landfall on the Gulf of Mexico
The Prediction Team will issue further forecasts on June 3, Aug. 5, Sept. 2 and Oct. 1.
More details on their forecast can be found at the Colorado State website.
